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Workshops
Monday 14 June 2010
A1: Construction of efficient stock market indices
This session will give insights into the challenges when aiming to construct efficient benchmarks and will introduce methods that have been proposed recently and that allow us to build efficient benchmarks based on a robust methodology.
Speaker: Felix Goltz, Edhec
A2: Reconciling different risk measures working party
There is a broad consensus that financial firms should measure the risks to which they are exposed. However, there is great variation between industry sectors and geographic regions in relation to how risks are ranked. Ability to meet liabilities as they fall due leads logically to a run-off approach, while a focus on possible intervention leads to a one-year projection or instant stress test approaches. Some approaches focus on a failure probability while others consider the shortfall in a ruin scenario. This working party considers how these methods can be reconciled, with benchmark calculations for key product types under different measurement approaches. Applications include the construction of management information for multinational firms with diverse reported measures for different products or territories. Our work is also of use to firms seeking to reconcile their internal measures to regulatory requirements.
Speaker: Andrew Smith, Deloitte
A3: Optimal structure and governance of ESGs in a Solvency II world
This session covers the practicalities and challenges of embedding ESG modelling within a (large) organisation, for a large number of uses and functions ranging from profit and capital within Actuarial to strategic asset allocation/investment strategy within investment management and product development/bulk deals in the pricing department.
It also discusses the wider regulatory and governance issues brought forth by the advent of Solvency II.
Speakers: Parit Jakhria, Prudential and Elliot Varnell, KPMG
B1: Impacts of regulation and market turbulence on annuity fund investment strategies working party
Economic conditions over the last two years have caused a rethink on the design of both capital and embedded value measurements. UK annuity funds’ investment concentration in long dated sterling denominated credit has led to significant systematic risk in the sector and our paper analyses the degree to which current insurance regulation is responsible for that bias, as well as how the proposed Solvency II framework might lead to a revision of strategies by key players.
Speakers:John Roe, Legal and General and Emily Timmis, RBS
B2: The use of time series modelling techniques in ERM
Many financial market and insurance related data contain valuable information about patterns over time. This session describes the application of econometric time series modelling techniques to solve typical problems facing actuaries in the ERM and investment related fields. Be it developing models of the underwriting cycle, projecting inflation indices or considering a model of equity returns. The main focus will be on the ARIMA family of models with discussions on data analysis, model identification, parameterisation and the diagnostic tests to ensure the selection of a valid model. Lastly ARCH/GARCH modelling will be addressed. Case studies will be used throughout
Speaker: Richard Shaw, HRC
B3: ERM for strategic and emerging risks working party
This session will cover ERM and strategic business management for insurance and financial services in a world of “unknown unknowns” and how the CRO can:
critically and self-consciously set a strategic direction, aligned with corporate governance processes and the corporate culture, vision and mission
focus on “risk and opportunity management”, balancing risks against opportunities, whilst being resilient against “unknown unknowns” and their emergence over time as “known unknowns” and “known knowns”
take greater risk to improve rewards and gain competitive advantage, bearing in mind that achieving strategic direction is like running a marathon where competitive advantage assists only with short-term positioning
Speakers: Neil Cantle, Milliman and George Orros, Universal Health Consultants
C1: Pricing and trading of limited price indexation (LPI) swaps
Inflation derivatives, such as swaptions and LPI swaps, are key instruments for hedging inflation risk in pensions. This session will examine the different options embedded in LPI pension benefits and the corresponding options available in the market as hedging instruments. The session will summarise the modelling approaches typically used to price these instruments. A simple model for valuing swaptions and LPI swaps using implied distributions from the options markets is described. The session will conclude with our view on future market developments for hedging with inflation options, followed by an open discussion.
Speakers: Mark Greenwood, RBS and Simona Svoboda-Greenwood
C2: Enterprise risk from the view of the investor working party
ERM in insurance companies has brought together all of the key risks in the company, to be managed in a holistic fashion. The ERM framework needs to provide sufficient information for investors, for whom insurance company risks are but part of the overall risk and reward of their total investment portfolios. They need information on systematic risk, potential correlations of earnings from future new business with macroeconomic trends, other risks to franchise value, and sources of model risk within the company. This session will describe and discuss the direction for the next generation of ERM activities.
Speaker: Andrew Hitchcox, Kiln
C3: Demonstrating actuaries’ holistic understanding of risk: managing the quants working party
Actuaries today are faced with problems of complexity, including the nature of risks and in particular the problem of the "unknown unknowns" which can have huge effects on our clients' assets and liabilities. The profession is attempting to deal with this problem with the creation of the CERA qualification, and a focus on CPD for all actuaries. But is this enough? We may need to run as fast as we can, just to maintain our current position in the hierarchy of professional expertise. What else should we be doing? What should we stop doing? What can we learn from others?
Speaker: Charles Ullman, Towers Watson
Tuesday 15 June 2010
D1: Recent academic evidence on the performance of the fund management industry
The vast majority of the academic literature on fund manager performance suggests that active managers cannot generate alpha, cannot time the market, and instead poor performance tends to persist. In this workshop Andrew Clare will review some of this evidence and will:
Argue that the extant literature on this subject may be underestimating the number of fund managers that can outperform the market; and
Explore the related evidence on simple investment strategies that do seem to produce alpha over long periods of time.
Speaker: Professor Andrew Clare, CASS Business School
D2: Risk and compensation
German banks (especially the public sector Landesbanken) have been some of the hardest hit by the financial crisis. In response, the authorities have introduced various laws and regulations, based on international guidelines, requiring financial institutions to manage risk and ensure that the compensation of “risk-takers” and managers is aligned with the actual risks being taken. Key issues have been how to define and measure “risk” and how long a period should an employee’s pay package be at risk of possible claw-back. This highly topical session examines why these changes have been introduced and how firms are responding.
Speakers: Peter Devlin, Deloitte Consulting, Germany and
FSA speaker to be confirmed
D3: Risk adjusted performance measurement working party
Performance measurement within financial firms typically takes the form of some measurement of profit expressed as a percentage of committed capital resources. The working party contrasts various approaches for risk adjustments, both to the numerator and the denominator. These include the use of CAPM and replicating portfolio approaches as examples of methodologies that rely on a separation of market and non-market risk. We also look at non-risk adjustments which may bias performance measures. These include allowances for frictional costs, illiquidity costs and premiums, risk and service margins as well as equity risk premiums within liability measurement, leading to higher initial liabilities and a subsequent source of profit.
Speaker: Andrew Smith, Deloitte
E1: Excess volatility revisited
Simple estimates of forecast interest rates and dividend growth, of the type used to estimate past expected equity premia, are used to estimate the level of UK stock market volatility implied by changes over time in investors’ estimates of fundamental value. There is a broad range of values for volatility that can be justified by changes in fundamental value estimated in this way, and actual market volatility is well within this range. So we do not view observed volatility as excessive.
Speaker: Andy Adams, University of Edinburgh Business School
E2: Characteristics of different risks
Categorising risks in a coherent manner sits at the heart of enterprise risk management, but ambiguities
abound: where does operational risk end and strategy risk begin? What constitutes liquidity risk? How
should non-disclosure be treated? This session will detail work on a standard system of risk classification
for the Actuarial Profession, what each risk entails, the overlaps between different risk types and how these
problems were resolved. It will be of interest to all those who are seeking to embed a coherent ERM
framework.
Speaker: Patrick Kelliher, Scottish Widows
E3: Extreme events: robust portfolio construction in the presence of fat tails
Recent market events have highlighted once again the tendency for extreme events to occur more often than we might expect, or like. Yet properly handled, extreme events should also offer us attractive opportunities for profit. In this session we will explore:
- how to analyse fat-tailed behaviour, at a joint as well as at an individual return series level
- what causes extreme events and why they are so prevalent
- how active management can create ‘selection’ effects that may intrinsically foster fat-tailed behaviour
- how standard portfolio construction approaches can be modified to cater better for fat-tailed behaviour, tempered by appreciation of the intrinsic limits that exist on how reliable any such approaches might be
Speaker: Malcolm Kemp, Nematrian



